Room For Improvement?

With the season more than halfway through and his team safely ensconsed in mid-table obscurity, can Jim Magilton still guide an upturn in fortunes to see the side make a second half dash for the play-offs? On the basis of the six point gap currently existing, it would seem more than achievable, yet previous precedents give less cause for optimism.

Whilst the teams performance over the first half of the season is entirely summarised by the word "inconsistent", it still remains that the team are only six points adrift of a play-off place. In principal, it is a gap which could conceivably be made up within the next month of football, with a decent run of form, and so gives most fans reason to maintain optimistic about the second half of the season.

Yet, the key word is "form". So far, Town have yet to show anything resembling form and so all hopes for the remainder of the season rest on the notion that Jim Magilton will be able to conjure a sufficient up-turn in form over the remaining twenty games to achieve a play-off position.

Worryingly, previous seasons suggest that even with a gap which appears so achievable, few teams have managed to produce sufficient form to make up such a points margin and overturn those teams already in the play-off places.

Over the last 10 seasons, only 6 teams have managed to overturn a six-point or greater deficit on New Years Day and still manage to qualify for the play-offs.

2008- Hull and Crystal Palace 1 point away from 6th place

2007- Sunderland 3 points away and Wolves 2 points away

2006- No team managed to catch the top 6

2005- PRESTON and DERBY both 6 points away

2004- CRYSTAL PALACE 11 points away and West Ham 1 point away

2003- Wolves 5 points away, having played one game less

2002- Birmingham 1 point away

2001- PRESTON 3 points away, having played one game more

2000- BOLTON and BIRMINGHAM 8 points away, having played one game less

1999- No team managed to catch the top 6

So, on the face of it, this would suggest that Jim Magilton and his side have some considerable work to do. Particularly when you consider that, contrary to the notion that the team qualifying for the play-offs as latecomers usually have a good chance of promotion, of the six sides mentioned, only one of them managed to actually go on to win promotion through the play-offs.

Both Crystal Palace in 2004 and Sunderland in 2007 put together astonishing runs in the second half of the season, enough for promotion and the Championship itself respectively, but in both cases the teams had already begun on a run of form.

Whilst this may paint a negative picture of Towns chances, the other factor which has gone unconsidered is the form of those teams already in the play-off places. For history shows several examples of teams which have fallen apart quite dramatically after a good first half of the season. Whilst there is a points margin to be made up, it could be aided by the form of certain teams currently occupying positions above Town.

Burnleys appearance in the latter rounds of the league cup, coupled with a very small squad, could have an impact on their performance through the rest of the season. Similarly that of Cardiff who have been buoyed by the goals of both Ross McCormack and Michael Chopra, players who are likely to be unavailable to them over the next few months.

Much of the concern voiced about Towns season so far has been largely a result of the lack of progress in comparison to the money spent and squad put together. Yet, Jim continues to rotate the players in his squad, as witnessed over the previous few weeks. It may well turn out that the strength of numbers could well be the most important factor in overcoming sides above us as the season draws to its climax.