Friday, 21 March 2008

The run-in! Will we make it?

With seven games to go, the Championship still remains as competitive as ever, with little appearing to be decided in the promotion race. But it has become much clearer. Emma looks at the table with a magnifying glass.

We are into the home straight and the division is still wide open. This is, of course, only a good thing for Ipswich, given our recent run of indifferent form.

But in the last week or so, it has become quite clear exactly who the competition is and what we are left to compete for.

A month or so ago, a good run of results for Ipswich or Charlton could have put both clubs in the equation for the automatic promotion places. But both teams provided precisely the opposite. If teams win their games in hand, the top four will have a five point cushion to the rest of the league. Unless there is a dramatic collapse, those four teams, Stoke, Bristol City, Watford and West Brom, will occupy those same positions at the end of the season. The only debate being in what order and which two will be the lucky wins to win automatic promotion.

Which leaves two play-off positions up for grabs. Again, if teams win their games in hand, and Ipswich are one of just two teams in that position, then it looks likely that Burnley in 11th place would be the last team who could realistically have expectations of still making the play-offs, being six points adrift. Beyond that, the gap is just too great to be made up (Cardiff could draw level with Burnley, but need to win two games in hand, which for a midtable side, with an FA cup semi-final to distract them, seems a tall order).

So, the equation for Ipswich seems very clear right now. Two places up for grabs, seven clubs playing for them. Its tight, but we are right in the middle of it. Our fixtures should, on paper, give us a good advantage against many of our rivals. But we have to turn the potential results into reality. The weekends game at Scunthorpe looks crucial.

What could be interesting is that, with such a close group of teams, those making those last two positions are going to make it on the back of a good run of form and with a great deal of confidence. Whereas their opposition in the play-offs are likely to be one of two teams who have come up short after leading the league and being within touching distance of automatic promotion for much of the season. Given how closely matched the division has been throughout, with any team being able to beat anyone else, this could be a huge advantage.

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