Must Win Games

Charlton was a must win game. And glory-be we won it - promptly sailing above them on goal difference. So we are right back in the promotion frame again. Until our next "must-win game" doesnt go quite so well. Probably as soon as Scunthorpe at the weekend. When, if we lose and Charlton win or draw, they will just as quickly go back above us again. And our season will be over- again. Well, at least for another week.

Trouble is, with almost half the division joining us in the promotion play-off frame, it's not so much how Town perform from now on - it's how the other teams do. And by their very nature, most of those teams will not be winning - especially if they are busy playing each other.

Most football managers abide by the old cliché of taking each match as it comes. That's a strange point of view in a league season which is a marathon, not a sprint, to dust off another well-worn cliché. If you are trying to win promotion, surely it is better to focus on the long term? Taking each match as it comes probably explains why we focus so much on the next game and build it up out of all proportion to its actual meaning.

So it was we had another must-win game the previous Tuesday against Barnsley, in holiday mode after their FA Cup successes. The general consensus was probably that we only had to turn up to claim our rightful three points. Alas, a brisk breeze and some comedy defending sent us spinning to one of the more depressing defeats of the season, promptly resulting in much woe and navel-gazing. The more hysterical amongst us would have you believe our season ended then and there.

But the truth is - virtually everybody else slipped up that night too. So in the great scheme of things it didn't matter one iota. Before the game we were on the edge of the promotion play-offs. We were out-fought and out-thought by a team half a division below us - and ended the night precisely where we started - on the fringe of the play-offs.

The same would have been more or less true had we lost our must-win game against Charlton. Yes, Charlton would have been temporarily out of sight, six points ahead of us - but we'd still be on the fringe of the play-offs, chasing that 6th place that seems destined to go to a pretty unsung team such as Palace, Plymouth or Hull. It also seems likely to be won on goal difference, let alone a single point.

If we assume that automatic promotion is now out of sight - our only realistic aim is the play-offs. Which is all of three points away - and probably will be in a month's time - irrespective of how we do. It's unrealistic to expect Town to suddenly win, win, win and sprint for the finishing line. Because the truth is, since Christmas, our form has been patchy at best. And let's face it - we're not that strong a team. It just happens that there are around ten other clubs all in the same boat - and all equally incapable of pushing their way on board the promotion express.

The truth is, if we want to grab the poisoned chalice of a place in the play offs and another tilt at the Premier League, all we have to do is find a bit of form and get three points more than Hull or Plymouth over the remaining few matches. In all honesty that is not too much of an ask. All those must win games roughly translates into winning one more game than they do.

There is no such thing as a must win game in this league. Not really. All you must do is end up with more points or a better goal difference than the teams around you. Not on any given Saturday (or cold, wet Tuesday night) - but at the end of the season. Then there really are a couple of must win games. The play-offs. But the sad truth is - you don't even have to win those either. A draw will do very nicely as long as you can take penalties.